Risky business

My google alerts recently unearthed a 2005 study by Tufts University on the efficiency of drug research and development. One of its findings was that economics considerations account for more than 35% of the attrition rate of drug candidates in development.



When a drug fails, the event makes news. We generally only hear about failures due to safety or efficacy concerns. Economic factors are rarely given as the reason for the failure.

The Tufts study explains that "rapidly rising R&D costs has led economics to gain ascendancy as a major reason for killing unpromising products in the R&D pipeline".

I find this explanation intriguing. The rising cost of development is not a new trend. Costs have been rising steadily, and returns falling steadily, for years. Does the Tufts study reveal the rise of a new cause of drug attrition in development or simply a fall in investor confidence and loyalty?