tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-259575342024-03-13T18:16:41.783+01:00wordupI am interested in research and in fostering research culture.
Researchers gather information for making sound decisions. If we lost our researchers we would make less informed decisions, fail to discover new things and would not be able to train new people to replace them.
My aim is to raise awareness of research efforts and debate how these efforts can be refined and improved.Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.comBlogger57125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25957534.post-23526183131890398152010-12-31T20:11:00.001+01:002010-12-31T20:15:55.481+01:00Happy Holidays & thanks to friends of wordup!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2_lbZ6JlCtE40jkEPzQBIv0Uvi62m0O2WvVCTEbM3FsKzui-t-di1bQojnDFLjPlWtU9V8pUzwt1IsMutaPmrBvUHjI1ABl28zY4xAK97orIU2uO6BxqI235NqRn2ts133fFq/s1600/happyholidays-wordup2011.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2_lbZ6JlCtE40jkEPzQBIv0Uvi62m0O2WvVCTEbM3FsKzui-t-di1bQojnDFLjPlWtU9V8pUzwt1IsMutaPmrBvUHjI1ABl28zY4xAK97orIU2uO6BxqI235NqRn2ts133fFq/s1600/happyholidays-wordup2011.jpg" /></a></div>wordup wishes you the very best for 2011!<br />
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And to the friends of wordup research: thanks for an amazing 2010!! Through these friends I have enjoyed a front row seat on the research and development at:<br />
<a href="http://www.centreforthemind.com/">Centre for the Mind</a><br />
<a href="http://www.nccr-finrisk.uzh.ch/index.php">Finrisk</a><br />
<a href="http://www.ini.uzh.ch/">Institute of Neuroinformatics</a><br />
<a href="http://www.scanco.ch/">SCANCO AG</a><br />
<a href="http://stimmt.ch/">Stimmt AG</a><br />
<a href="http://www.upu.int/">Universal Postal Union</a><br />
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Thanks very much, also, to the many individuals who have discussed ideas and research with me in 2010!<br />
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When I wrote in March 2009 that I was organizing interviews with "researchers and research policy opinion leaders about their response to the changed global conditions in research funding," I simply could not have imagined the way things have developed since. The response of Universities and innovative businesses to the aftermath of the global financial crisis has been dramatic. But much more diverse than I predicted back then.<br />
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I'm re-doubling my efforts to help innovators prepare themselves for the changed economic conditions. During the next few months I will distribute some interviews I have made, posted on Youtube, about how people are re-drawing their plans and keeping their eyes on the prize: being innovative, seizing opportunities.<br />
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And of course I am already planning the wordup research Asia 2011 tour! Stay tuned.Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25957534.post-3946727808657107372010-11-04T11:21:00.002+01:002010-11-04T11:40:42.549+01:00Hello from Interact @wordupresearch<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHg9HKjEq1UkEmXmTlvfduSZkYS8KRZ-lQmyGTTMfMT9yyK6VoH0qZwmuL6Zkh2n1MyQj4tfduaKgRh3TTxRXiUBXRbnsDy1KAk4FnYxpdOni7Q5476lcUmVnWtG268kkCw8lk/s1600/interact.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="79" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHg9HKjEq1UkEmXmTlvfduSZkYS8KRZ-lQmyGTTMfMT9yyK6VoH0qZwmuL6Zkh2n1MyQj4tfduaKgRh3TTxRXiUBXRbnsDy1KAk4FnYxpdOni7Q5476lcUmVnWtG268kkCw8lk/s320/interact.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>I'm currently taking a holiday from this blog. That is not to say I won't make further posts.<br />
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Most of my blog attention now resides <a href="http://interact.wordupresearch.com/ux/">here</a> on my new 'interact' blog:<br />
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Interact does not replace this blog. It is just a different concept for blogging and one that suits me better right now. And don't forget that my tweets get published here, on this site (top left hand side), so I would still encourage you to stop by now and then.<br />
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Thanks for reading!Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25957534.post-55487183438440334772010-07-26T14:36:00.000+02:002010-07-26T14:36:36.310+02:00Unblogged: visit to Singapore and Sydney<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrz9Nj_2xZ8MLVNvLYieGMYigtTsxm3P6vl7b-77F3ZYwP2hz4LVYgY6zjwS2AI8Fynum6Tfh9DOkpxRr-NMoD8S58rrQdjV1RDF_lGzYCJcGoOoJ44G7wXXwVn77uq-vg8aQ7/s1600/singapore.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrz9Nj_2xZ8MLVNvLYieGMYigtTsxm3P6vl7b-77F3ZYwP2hz4LVYgY6zjwS2AI8Fynum6Tfh9DOkpxRr-NMoD8S58rrQdjV1RDF_lGzYCJcGoOoJ44G7wXXwVn77uq-vg8aQ7/s320/singapore.jpg" /></a></div><br />
I know I should get out more, so next week I will begin a journey to Singapore and Sydney for some face time with the people I usually only blog about.<br />
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High on my meetings list are students, recent graduates and entrepreneurs. I'll be heading along to a youth event jointly organized by the <a href="http://www.usyd.edu.au/">University of Sydney</a> and the <a href="http://www.nus.edu.sg/">National University of Singapore</a>, called <a href="http://www.whatmakesayoungchampion.com/">What Makes a Young Champion</a>. And I will also be speaking with graduates and faculty of the <a href="http://www.smu.edu.sg/">Singapore Management University</a>.<br />
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With the financial crisis starting to have a direct impact on many research institutions around the world, it is interesting to see how universities are reshaping themselves as a result. For example, Singapore Management University is expanding its <a href="http://www.socsc.smu.edu.sg/faculty/social_sciences/">Social Sciences and Humanities faculty</a>. In the UK, the Humanities/Arts faculties face the greatest <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2010/feb/28/outcry-threat-cuts-humanities-universities">funding pressure</a>.<br />
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More than anything else I am simply keen to learn from people who are living in these exciting Asia-Pacific centers.<br />
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Read the full announcement <a href="http://www.wordupresearch.com/tobefreeman_09.pdf">here</a>. I welcome you to follow my journey <a href="http://www.facebook.com/pages/7-Raffles-Boulevard-Marina-Square/wordup-research-Asia-2010/110423792342878">here</a> (for Facebook fans) or <a href="http://www.asia2010.wordupresearch.com/">here</a> (for those that aren't...).Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25957534.post-2480739595988220102010-03-18T11:27:00.001+01:002010-03-18T20:27:20.302+01:00Scientific culture and war in Britain<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjBijda7Gxr21csZdwNzr9EWe5naYFDB-ijN4tMmbbmOlqixea4E9-Vl9jepBe76pAUfFznauduv0epyOjGNGlZ2XdvbBwE1ywb6c5aLV7O5pgHz3d-a6HRlk0NnNBxNaEM0zK/s1600-h/Keep-Calm.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjBijda7Gxr21csZdwNzr9EWe5naYFDB-ijN4tMmbbmOlqixea4E9-Vl9jepBe76pAUfFznauduv0epyOjGNGlZ2XdvbBwE1ywb6c5aLV7O5pgHz3d-a6HRlk0NnNBxNaEM0zK/s320/Keep-Calm.jpg" /></a></div>Is the pen mightier than the sword? Not in hand-to-hand combat, according to new research by Univ. Maastricht Professor <a href="http://www.fdcw.unimaas.nl/staff/default.asp?id=203">Geert Somsen</a> about British war propaganda in 1941. <br />
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Raining down on France that year were more than 22 million pamphlets, dropped from bomber aircraft, containing stories penned by Britain's top secret Political Warfare Executive.<br />
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The so called Forth Fighting Army of Britain, its propaganda campaign, was no less active on the Home front. Former <a href="http://www.nature.com/">Nature</a> editor Sir Richard Gregory made rousing remarks about the importance of scientific culture at the Science and World Order conference held at London's <a href="http://www.rigb.org/registrationControl?action=home">Royal Institution</a>. Diplomats, politicians, and significantly, famous scientists and science journalists heard Gregory argue that science is a "true democracy and a great democracy".<br />
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Professor Somsen noted that many of the assembled luminaries, including Gregory, had openly questioned Western democracy during the decade before. In short, they rallied for the Allied cause and sent a clear message about the democratic, democratizing effects of science and international research culture.<br />
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Thanks to the host of Professor Somsen's seminar, the <a href="http://tr.im/SeRs">ETH History of Knowledge</a> Centre.Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25957534.post-21029564663857541502010-01-19T20:48:00.002+01:002010-01-19T21:10:30.866+01:00Risks Report narrows awareness gap about runaway risks<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZJeISrrgqJTbuvTxw8Z0GpMBuBK061rBRcGcH9xGP88jUnqxlLkoes3RQg2SKavGyPNaxvtKxG15OmMD_AlV7jBPXvTlUcrppZsUsP65DlIBY9M0ASb6YdfVa_zB1VBcCWqPE/s1600-h/RIM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZJeISrrgqJTbuvTxw8Z0GpMBuBK061rBRcGcH9xGP88jUnqxlLkoes3RQg2SKavGyPNaxvtKxG15OmMD_AlV7jBPXvTlUcrppZsUsP65DlIBY9M0ASb6YdfVa_zB1VBcCWqPE/s320/RIM.jpg" /></a><br />
</div>I've now had a chance to digest <a href="http://www.centre-for-global-dialogue.net/INTERNET/rschwebp.nsf/vwPagesIDKeyWebLu/CHZH-7XYCSX?OpenDocument">last night's stimulating panel</a> on the <a href="http://www.weforum.org/en/media/Latest%20Press%20Releases/PR_GRR2010">WEF Global Risks Report</a>, hosted at the <a href="http://www.centre-for-global-dialogue.net/">Centre for Global Dialogue</a>.<br />
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Collapsing asset prices, indebtedness and fiscal crises have featured prominently in each of the Reports since 2006. This year, editor and lead author Sheana Tambourgi points to what she calls an 'awareness gap' about the implications of underinvestment in infrastructure, rising costs of chronic disease and, more cryptically, a deficit in global governance.<br />
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Why the attention towards such apparently vague risks?<br />
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The panel discussion focused on the impact of interconnections between individual global risks. A central theme of the Global Risks Report, the complex interconnections between risks are examined graphically in the Risks Interconnection Map (<a href="http://www.weforum.org/documents/riskbrowser2010/risks/#">RIM</a>, pictured).<br />
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For example, the Map shows how connections between the degraded state of global infrastructure, weak climate/energy policies and China's slowing growth rate can explain why chronic disease, food price volatility and biodiversity loss could combine to produce a disproportionately large economic cost.<br />
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What can such an analysis offer? To answer this question I am reminded of a <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/2010/100106/full/463024a.html">recent piece</a> in Nature suggesting that “science should focus more on understanding the present and less on predicting the future”. A focus on the apparently vague and relatively modest hazards of the here and now may help to avoid a calamity of far greater proportions.Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25957534.post-66887674666627334902009-12-31T13:39:00.001+01:002009-12-31T13:53:36.839+01:00Happier New Predictions from wordup!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2ojhpTT8bVD1TSSR2CoP9RI_oFBHLpEu3tOHZAd6M3AEd6drO_VDijoyGMFt3eOOpKFCdzlMqCDSVCHhP4FeckUhQoTppvO2h52Cgshrkozw4cbpniBM0YefZBwbOhXJpcJhp/s1600-h/cherry-blossom-future.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2ojhpTT8bVD1TSSR2CoP9RI_oFBHLpEu3tOHZAd6M3AEd6drO_VDijoyGMFt3eOOpKFCdzlMqCDSVCHhP4FeckUhQoTppvO2h52Cgshrkozw4cbpniBM0YefZBwbOhXJpcJhp/s320/cherry-blossom-future.jpg" /></a><br />
</div>We're all brimming with predictions about 2010 at this time of year. We know that a year is a long time in politics, yet for some reason there is a collective over confidence, peaking in the New Year, that we have a handle on the most important events that will take place in the next 12 months.<br />
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I'd like to lead a retreat from over extended predictions and it seems I am in good company. With Japan.<br />
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Japan's official weather agency <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8430561.stm" mce_href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8430561.stm" target="_blank">has ceased making</a> its traditional prediction about the start of the cherry-blossom season. "The agency has given out such information in early March every year but we will no longer do so from next year," said agency official Yoshitoshi Sakai. I also salute their courtesy for providing almost 3 months notice of the policy change.<br />
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This is a <a href="http://wordupcommunications.blogspot.com/2006/06/three-types-of-models.html" mce_href="http://wordupcommunications.blogspot.com/2006/06/three-types-of-models.html" target="_blank">serious issue for me</a>. Not the start of the blossom season, although a precise prediction is great for making advance travel arrangements to see Japan in bloom.<br />
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Good models help us peer through the fog of observation and reveal the best interpretation of what is going on. We like to know what the future will bring, but dislike the fact that some of it is fundamentally unknowable to us.<br />
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Consider that a good visionary may not be someone claiming to see furthest, but rather someone that sees the 'here and now' differently. Arguably, it is from this that we might learn the most.<br />
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Happy New Year!Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25957534.post-1939190716222020152009-11-06T09:08:00.002+01:002009-11-06T09:18:38.018+01:00Online collaboration in finance<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlImPNmZM61UrFl6sLK-dezsn_k9W-sFk55bcl8eTB00QFLO34z6zEOj-9r9aZ2m4pJJcJa2VsYNBNSjwuguRge0g29wAP0mhu9qQj06NRAv_QhztZ5JjXM3dCbXyVfTyY0Mna/s1600-h/collaboration.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlImPNmZM61UrFl6sLK-dezsn_k9W-sFk55bcl8eTB00QFLO34z6zEOj-9r9aZ2m4pJJcJa2VsYNBNSjwuguRge0g29wAP0mhu9qQj06NRAv_QhztZ5JjXM3dCbXyVfTyY0Mna/s400/collaboration.jpg" /></a><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal">Is it likely that the finance industry will embrace social media? I found myself back at the <a href="http://www.centre-for-global-dialogue.net/">Centre for Global Dialogue</a> this week to hear what banks and insurance companies really think about enabling employees, as well as a firm’s extended client community, to interact and share information using corporate online platforms.<br />
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</div><div class="MsoNormal">First of all, there seems to be a lot of interest in corporate social media. Many separate motivations appear to explain this interest ranging from recruitment, to product marketing, to the simple goal of answering employees’ wishes.<br />
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</div><div class="MsoNormal">Social media might also be a way to access tacit knowledge within a company. Under the <i>right</i> conditions, a social media platform could record valuable exchanges between employees that might otherwise never leave the water cooler.<br />
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</div><div class="MsoNormal">There lies the rub.<br />
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</div><div class="MsoNormal">Under the <i>wrong</i> conditions, the risk with corporate social media is that it functions as an all-watching big brother. Who would want to collaborate online if there were ambiguities about how the information was used and no protection of privacy?<br />
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</div><div class="MsoNormal">A presentation by <a href="http://twitter.com/marilynpratt">Marilyn Pratt</a> was informative in this regard. Pratt co-runs a corporate social media initiative at business systems software firm <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAP_AG">SAP</a> involving almost 2 million people. Posts appearing on the platform are moderated, but that doesn’t mean that a group of company spooks go around erasing anything that hints at criticism of the firm.<br />
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</div><div class="MsoNormal">Indeed, even the really irritable posts go online in a section called the ‘Coffee Corner’. As for the moderation process, 700 of the moderators have been recruited from outside SAP. These and other comments from her presentation suggested a sophisticated online culture has developed. <br />
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</div><div class="MsoNormal">So there are certainly some conditions where a corporate platform can work in practical terms. Reading a little into this area I recently came across a book called ‘Delete: The virtue of forgetting in the digital age’ by public policy academic <a href="http://www.spp.nus.edu.sg/Faculty_Viktor_Mayer_Schonberger.aspx">Viktor Mayer-Shoenberger</a>.<br />
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</div><div class="MsoNormal">Based in Singapore’s <a href="http://www.spp.nus.edu.sg/Home.aspx">Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy</a>, Mayer-Shoenberger believes that even the most sophisticated attempts at corporate best practice will fall short protecting your digital privacy. Ultimately, he argues, the solution is to place a limit on the duration that digital information is stored.<br />
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</div><div class="MsoNormal">To delete periodically.<o:p></o:p><br />
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</div><div class="MsoNormal">I have plenty more to report about the conference, but that might have to wait for subsequent posts.<br />
</div>Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25957534.post-43639595276010987562009-09-27T21:47:00.007+02:002009-09-28T08:31:45.060+02:00Financial regulation and the ecological niche<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmPW3HZ0ivw8NLUUFK22qo8d6RK8PWmxuqxoAob6zw1E_2igbxzvk5ZRH3B1ojw0r00wyOsDOOxmRcjZ1EXS8wPGS68BSod75Q7cYw-GBwdSyThv3FGAnncemddr-wgCpykFXv/s1600-h/niche.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 300px; height: 200px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmPW3HZ0ivw8NLUUFK22qo8d6RK8PWmxuqxoAob6zw1E_2igbxzvk5ZRH3B1ojw0r00wyOsDOOxmRcjZ1EXS8wPGS68BSod75Q7cYw-GBwdSyThv3FGAnncemddr-wgCpykFXv/s400/niche.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5386236990318803746" border="0" /></a><br />A crazy thought experiment: what happens if I take a science research <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7261/full/nature08251.html">paper</a> and substitute the topic of investigation with a hot topic from the social sciences: financial regulation?<br /><br />Below, I have included excerpts from the original science paper and from my newly minted thought experiment 'paper'.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Original title</span>: <span style="font-style: italic;">The importance of niches for the maintenance of species diversity</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Thought experiment:</span> <span style="font-style: italic;">The importance of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass-Steagall_Act">Glass-Steagall</a> legislation towards inhibiting risky levels of concentration among financial intermediaries</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Original introduction: </span>Ecological communities characteristically contain a wide diversity of species with important functional, economic and aesthetic value. Ecologists have long questioned how this diversity is maintained.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Thought experiment:</span> Recent events in global financial markets underscore the risks of excessive concentration among financial intermediaries. Sometimes referred as the problem of 'too big to fail', economists are seeking ways to prevent financial systems from being populated by a small number of dominant players.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Original introduction:</span> Classic theory shows that stable coexistence requires competitors to differ in their niches.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Thought experiment: </span>A canonical lesson of the Great Depression was the recognition of the need to separate the granting of credit — lending — and the use of credit — investing. Specifically, the Glass-Steagall act of 1933 enforced a separation between commercial banks and investment banks.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Original introduction:</span> That niche differences are key to coexistence, however, has recently been challenged by the neutral theory of biodiversity, which explains coexistence with the equivalence of competitors.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Thought experiment:</span> With the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass-Steagall_Act#Repeal_of_the_Act">repeal</a> of the Glass-Steagall act in 1999, financial theorists convinced regulators that stable financial systems could exist even when a bank has the choice to participate in commercial as well as investment banking activities.<br /><br />Now, let's get a little stranger. Let's look at results and conclusions of the two papers:<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Original findings:</span> However, in the absence of niche differences the most common species, Salvia columbariae, became considerably more common, constituting almost 60% of 2008 community seed mass.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Thought experiment:</span> In the absence of the Glass-Steagall act, Citigroup constituted almost 60% of 2008 global financial market.<br />Conversely, the seven smallest regional banks constituted 35% of the financial markets in the presence of Glass-Steagall Act, but only 8% in its absence.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Original conclusions:</span> Our results support the hypothesis that niche differences strongly stabilize coexistence.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Thought experiment:</span> Our results show that a separation of investment and commercial banks produces a marked reduction in dangerous concentration in the financial sector.<br /><br />I'll stop there. The original <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7261/full/nature08251.html">paper</a>, by Levine & Janneke HilleRisLambers, appears in the September 10th edition of the journal Nature.Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25957534.post-69179011604695919052009-06-05T21:44:00.006+02:002009-06-05T21:57:36.142+02:00Swiss Doctoral Workshop in Finance, Darrell Duffie and SoFiE<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1-D5nOfdoICCSkWDUcyeGPOwUayqvRxIIJIV6vaFmwuxeKHG1wvMxWKatVzpcS681GIwxN7pk3SD18pfvsKAtIt6RMh_-Lc8J2gA901dupGzWkWlEvosyAyxCFIuWBU6iWVHA/s1600-h/gerzensee2008.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 300px; height: 200px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1-D5nOfdoICCSkWDUcyeGPOwUayqvRxIIJIV6vaFmwuxeKHG1wvMxWKatVzpcS681GIwxN7pk3SD18pfvsKAtIt6RMh_-Lc8J2gA901dupGzWkWlEvosyAyxCFIuWBU6iWVHA/s400/gerzensee2008.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5343934237041494194" border="0" /></a><br />wordup will be on the road next week beginning Monday with a visit to the <a href="http://www.nccr-finrisk.uzh.ch/workshops.php">Swiss Doctoral Workshop in Finance</a>, held near Bern. I will then move on to Geneva for a <a href="http://www.swissfinanceinstitute.ch/events/aboutus_events_opa2009.htm">presentation by Darrell Duffie</a> before joining the opening of the second <a href="http://www.nyu.edu/sofie/index.html">Society for Financial Econometrics</a> conference, also in Geneva.<br /><br />The Doctoral Workshop (image, left) assembles graduate students from top finance research schools throughout Switzerland and places them before an academic audience from around the world. The venue, <a href="http://www.szgerzensee.ch/">Study Center Gerzensee</a>, is run by the Swiss National Bank. And run very well, I must say.<br /><br />In the past, this meeting has been a great chance to learn what finance researchers really think is going on in the economy and I am sure this year will not be an exception to this.<br /><br />Having won a Swiss finance prize in 2008, Stanford Professor of Finance <a href="http://www.stanford.edu/%7Eduffie/">Darrell Duffie</a> will give an acceptance presentation entitled "Policy Issues Facing the Market for Credit Derivatives" on Tuesday evening at the <span class="text">Société de Lecture, Geneva</span>. I've been in touch with Darrell and among the various themes he promised to talk about will be a precise explanation of the dramatic kinetics of last year's bank failures.<br /><br />I will then be taking a brief break to visit a long time friend Dr Daniele Pralong in a small town on lake Geneva. When I met Daniele at Oxford 15 years ago I would not have imagined that either of us would living be in Switzerland today, and certainly not both of us at the same time. But having arrived here earlier in the year from her most recent address in Washington DC it seems we will now be separated by a mere train ride. Great news for wordup given the better access Daniele's broad knowledge of bio-medical research.<br /><br />I invite you to follow all the action <a href="http://twitter.com/tobefreeman">here</a>, via twitter. And I hope to coax a few words from doctoral students <a href="http://phd-finance.ch/">here</a> using a Google's Friends Connect platform I installed for them a few weeks ago.Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25957534.post-48032536373282174582009-05-28T23:56:00.011+02:002009-06-12T23:10:43.076+02:00There are risks. You have to think about them.<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVLEtFjJZHL5nF2ucr1C0xtrYQJ607nJmW10OLR-VYELOTTczO10Mlz-_7eBq0geZHFedwTnbKkBl9NO-Qr1NqNtAbQ9DxgfatTwij_J_MwkEqvZ6XDF7WVBK2pLqB3GiiNaNO/s1600-h/swissre_risk_05-28.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 300px; height: 200px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVLEtFjJZHL5nF2ucr1C0xtrYQJ607nJmW10OLR-VYELOTTczO10Mlz-_7eBq0geZHFedwTnbKkBl9NO-Qr1NqNtAbQ9DxgfatTwij_J_MwkEqvZ6XDF7WVBK2pLqB3GiiNaNO/s400/swissre_risk_05-28.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5340999520276971906" border="0" /></a><br />Economists have predicted 10 out of the last 5 recessions. Jokes aside, economic prediction is beset with false alarms and missed warnings these days, so why should we get excited about the author of the 2006 business best seller "<a href="http://www.amazon.de/Crash-kommt-Max-Otte/dp/3430200016">The Crash is Coming</a>", Max Otte?<br /><br /><a href="http://www.fh-worms.de/iba/Personen/cvotte.html">Professor Otte</a>, <a href="http://www.fh-worms.de/">Worms Technical University, Germany</a> (pictured, middle) and Kanwardeep Ahluwalia, Swiss Re (right) led the discussion at this evening's Swiss Re's Centre for Global Dialogue <a href="http://www.centre-for-global-dialogue.net/">Risk Talk</a> on forecasting the next crisis.<br /><br />Otte seems to have been spot on with his 2005 prediction of a 'financial tsunami in 2008 and certainly before 2010'. But why should we have believed him at the time?<br /><br />His reasoning was based on 'very simple measures' of total debt versus gross domestic product in the US, and the fact that indexes like the Dow were rising much faster than measures of real wealth.<br /><br />But the simplicity of Otte's analysis masks what is perhaps a deeper level to his thinking. After all, relatively few people predicted this financial crisis. His ideas met with a significant headwind at the time. And his ideas where not the product of complex risk models. Quite the opposite, in fact.<br /><br />"You can't simply put a number on risks,' Otte explained during the discussion at the end of the presentation this evening. Earlier he had expressed a certain cynicism towards the goal of precisely quantifying risk. In a jibe towards the widely used risk model <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_at_Risk">Value at Risk</a>, Otte questioned how any organization could rely so strongly on the assumption that past volatility alone could predict a company's future risk exposure.<br /><br />Physicist Dr Ahluwalia shared some interesting insights from his final days at investment bank Bear Stearns. Luck or otherwise, Ahluwalia resigned exactly one day before the company's 'fatal liquidity problem' in March 2008.<br /><br />"People were not confident to enforce the risk measures that were already in place," explained Ahluwalia. Here again we see that the problem is not simply a flaw in financial risk models. The problem concerns the limits to the very application of these models to risk management.<br /><br />And that is what I think distinguishes Professor Otte from the crowd. "One needs to go back to first principles and ask when will the model itself break?"<br /><br />"There are risks. You have to think about them," he said.Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25957534.post-77659907105473388912009-05-20T20:40:00.006+02:002009-05-20T21:07:29.179+02:00Boost to European public-private medical research<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA881BozguAQD2vQl2R5ypKV_Gc86LYYF-v1yAhulFzWAsy0U4pDRpV0JBm7yfuqBv7Ad6VGqg_ZgXPfvSV8lMJiZBBjXdtzgHQJsw2FmgOLjrqcs5Md6y6gpZvdeGlwhuofWg/s1600-h/blog_genedata.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 300px; height: 200px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA881BozguAQD2vQl2R5ypKV_Gc86LYYF-v1yAhulFzWAsy0U4pDRpV0JBm7yfuqBv7Ad6VGqg_ZgXPfvSV8lMJiZBBjXdtzgHQJsw2FmgOLjrqcs5Md6y6gpZvdeGlwhuofWg/s400/blog_genedata.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5337984515145508434" border="0" /></a><br />While skeptical about green shoots in the financial sector, I am happy to herald <a href="http://www.euractiv.com/en/health/eu-unveils-246m-innovative-medicines-scheme/article-182461">upbeat news</a> that the EU is pledging more than 240 million euros towards a <a href="http://imi.europa.eu/index_en.html">drug research project</a> involving leading European pharmaceutical companies, academic research institutes and a handful of biotechnology companies.<br /><br />Back in 2006 I worked for a research software company called <a href="http://www.genedata.com/">Genedata</a> (known affectionately as the University of Genedata, pictured left). The company had a deal to work with 15 European pharmaceutical companies (basically, all the major ones) to <a href="http://www.genedata.com/press/press_releases/2006/innomedii/index_eng.html">develop quantitative tools</a> for predicting drug safety on the basis of whole-genome toxicology findings.<br /><br />The pharmaceutical industry stumps up about a fifth of the world commercial research and development budget and Big Pharma in Europe contributes generously towards Europe's trade surplus in the technology sector (still very healthy in 2008).<br /><br />So it is great to see convincingly green shoots!Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25957534.post-87144674210365754422009-03-18T20:59:00.004+01:002009-03-18T21:19:19.423+01:00Is trading success all in the numbers?<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy1907zm71_yPdFaU4s64lRjHQxf-xazc36yRPjW9t4KpiIkqlOjPq0wv_J6hQh5yz0yCcsrrK3IWy-1xXG2ZgBEYZF9ZCxbg-_jqNlqyp8vj4resxPcRHLirYchA6CqNGALOk/s1600-h/ale.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 300px; height: 200px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy1907zm71_yPdFaU4s64lRjHQxf-xazc36yRPjW9t4KpiIkqlOjPq0wv_J6hQh5yz0yCcsrrK3IWy-1xXG2ZgBEYZF9ZCxbg-_jqNlqyp8vj4resxPcRHLirYchA6CqNGALOk/s400/ale.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5314623480382697074" border="0" /></a><br /><br />I guess I'm not the only one wondering if private trading has been rendered all but impossible by the current market volatility. What is the point of me carefully building a portfolio when the entire market can be blind-sided by a single media report and placed on an entirely new trajectory?<br /><br />Lately, my long time friend and former research colleague Dr <a href="link:%20http://www.linkedin.com/in/usseglio">Alessandro Usseglio Viretta</a> has been applying his considerable mathematical talents to this very problem. He is using a form of machine learning known as Support Vector Machines (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Support_vector_machine">SVM</a>) to perform a complex analysis of the market in real time.<br /><br />SVM works by classifying stocks into simple categories, for example ‘buy’ versus ‘avoid’, on the basis of reams of market data. But while the predictions of the algorithm are straightforward, the stock picking rules created by SVM are feverishly complex. Every piece of market data chosen for inclusion in a SVM analysis is carefully factored into the final trading strategy. “It really matters what you choose to put in the model,” explains Alessandro.<br /><br />Alessandro has developed a <a href="http://innumero.com/">platform</a> able to perform SVM on timescales of minutes and even seconds. This is crucial for participation in markets such as foreign exchange, not to mention volatile equity markets. “That is where high frequency trading comes in,” comments Alessandro. And note that the New York Stock Exchange has recently introduced a fee structure that is more accommodating to high frequency traders.<br /><br />With an intellectual rigor befitting his early graduate physics work at <a href="http://public.web.cern.ch/public/">CERN</a>, and professional verve reflecting his recent collaborations with quant financial services provider <a href="http://www.oliverwyman.com/ow/">Oliver Wyman</a>, it is not surprising that traders are coming forward to test their strategies using Alessandro’s computational tools.<br /><br />But in the end, will it work? “I’m doing the math, but the important thing to realize is that I am collaborating with experienced traders,” explains Alessandro. “Together, we’re in with a good chance”.Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25957534.post-34914470989099252652009-03-14T20:44:00.003+01:002009-03-14T20:53:24.849+01:00Finance research moving up the Swiss charts<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMVjuSge8KtlVA7xXuZF1ePAuh1FceA4uboF2_1FLMniAOjTcih2JtwuonQV6BRZwiA4Ky_-WOanC8d1rw3dRC38D7T-9SdecuquWgcZbkJSsYNetkb3w-VUFIGWYJ3Ob5fuCJ/s1600-h/claude_baumann.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 300px; height: 200px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMVjuSge8KtlVA7xXuZF1ePAuh1FceA4uboF2_1FLMniAOjTcih2JtwuonQV6BRZwiA4Ky_-WOanC8d1rw3dRC38D7T-9SdecuquWgcZbkJSsYNetkb3w-VUFIGWYJ3Ob5fuCJ/s400/claude_baumann.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5313132717939380834" border="0" /></a><br />Where does finance research and education fit into the response to the 2008 financial crisis? I remember studying carefully the <a href="http://www.swissbanking.org/">Swiss Bankers Association</a> dossier on the "<a href="http://www.swissbanking.org/home/dossier-masterplan.htm">Financial Master Plan 2015</a>", in 2007, and finding very little about finance education (although the associated press release placed education at the top of the list of future priorities in Swiss banking).<br /><br />Swiss banking expert <a href="http://www.finews.ch/ueber-uns">Claude Baumann</a> (pictured right speaking with JPMorgan's <a href="http://www.jpmorganchase.com/cm/cs?pagename=Chase/Href&urlname=jpmc/about/team/execcommittee">Jes Staley</a> at a finance research conference last year) placed finance research in the top position in a recent "wake up" call for Switzerland's banking and finance community.<br /><br />In an <a href="http://www.zeit.de/2009/12/CH-Finanzplatz?page=2">upbeat piece</a> in <a href="http://www.zeit.de/">Zeit Online</a>, Baumann says that the Master Plan is still possible. Switzerland should rely on its traditional strengths: creating stability. And according to Baumann, it should continue to clean up its act as regards banking secrecy!Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25957534.post-72717599454622042962009-03-04T23:52:00.007+01:002009-03-05T01:40:53.411+01:00Swiss Re Risk Talk has cap at hand<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilHiIYkaW74mUnx7PIuijRcoPdI9CX0yzmleGj8TlzdTpYcUdLIj4knF9z05-pDAZXVAd6nuIPGhZMg5pftCu-RCrOC6Uh2Mawv8QwoLNe5pCN24rUvKhW1C2R2ONSB35eCJUA/s1600-h/SwissRe-RiskTalk.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 300px; height: 200px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilHiIYkaW74mUnx7PIuijRcoPdI9CX0yzmleGj8TlzdTpYcUdLIj4knF9z05-pDAZXVAd6nuIPGhZMg5pftCu-RCrOC6Uh2Mawv8QwoLNe5pCN24rUvKhW1C2R2ONSB35eCJUA/s320/SwissRe-RiskTalk.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5309493920894831442" /></a><div>This evening's <a href="http://www.centre-for-global-dialogue.net/INTERNET/rschwebp.nsf/vwPagesIDKeyWebLu/CMAN-6QAMQA?OpenDocument">Risk Talk</a> at the <a href="http://www.centre-for-global-dialogue.net/">Swiss Re Center for Global Dialogue</a> was, as usual, excellent and assembled a capacity crowd of local business people and researchers.<br /></div><br />World Economic Forum's <a href="http://www.weforum.org/en/about/Our%20Organization/LeadershipTeam/index.htm#sheana">Sheana Tambourgi</a> set the theme for the discussion by reviewing the results of the WEF's new <a href="http://www.weforum.org/pdf/globalrisk/globalrisks09/default.htm">Global Risks Perception Survey</a>. According to Tambourgi the survey distilled details of the complex and apparently escalating 'global risks landscape' to reveal a core set of risk ingredients that includes collapsing asset prices, over-stretched fiscal pledges, the future of China (and India) and of course climate.<br /><br />Seems that the Survey is the result of an extensive talk-fest sponsored by the WEF involving 120 experts based in New York, London, Zurich and also Kenya, Turkey, China and India. The results have been fed into a clustering algorithm that churns out what Tambourgi calls a Risks Interconnections Map.<br /><br />Each of the risk ingredients mentioned above appear as tightly interconnected clusters on the map. The map consolidates economic data from 160 countries and expert opinions on 24 separate risk categories. According to Tambourgi, the map indicates how risks interact with one another and has the potential to anticipate the "propensity of a given risk to trigger other risks".<br /><br />Interconnectedness is also the theme of Swiss Re's David Bresch research focusing on climate change. As head of Swiss Re's Atmospheric Perils Group, Bresch identifies CO2 as a common thread linking together the ever growing world economic losses due to climate change.<br /><br />It was at this point that the audience witnessed the re-insurance angle. Bresch presented some neat results estimating the ratio of insured versus uninsured global economic value during the past 30 years. In the mid 1980's this ratio was sitting on its historical average of roughly 50:50.<br /><br />But in the last two decades there has been a dramatic rise in the proportion of uninsured global capital such that a mere 20% of it is currently covered by insurers and re-insurers. Bresch calls for action to reduce the resulting hike in risk faced by the global economy. His preferred method to hand: the creation of a global carbon market using cap and trade.<br /><br />Thomas Hess, chief economist at Swiss Re, presented some very elegant mathematical models of the global financial risk landscape. According to Hess' calculations, the impact of the ongoing financial crisis on the real economy "is just getting started". His analysis focuses on an historical analysis of the default rate observed in so-called speculative grade companies.<br /><br />This key business risk index typically stands at around 5%. Hess' warning about the possibility of nastier things to come is based on the observation that the current value is barely above this historical level, yet his model predicts that it will peak at 21% during the course of the crisis.<br /><br />To put that percentage in perspective, the peak speculative grade default rate during the deep global recession of the early 1990s was a mere 12%. The dramatic bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2002 yielded a value of just 10%.<br /><br />The problem, Hess emphasized, is the potential for this kind of upheaval to destroy good companies as well as bad. And Hess didn't seem to have the same enthusiasm for market based solutions as Bresch had presented before him. Hess quipped "When will the current crisis end? When the next bubble starts."<br /><br />So can cap and trade really provide an interconnected solution to the global economic and environmental calamity we seem to be facing? The most <a href="http://www.euractiv.com/en/climate-change/call-carbon-reserve-co2-prices-hit-record-low/article-179263">recent news</a> from the EU's carbon trading scheme would suggest otherwise.<br /><br />Alas, we are yet to see the dawn of a new bubble in the value of carbon credits.Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25957534.post-913670940305160902009-02-08T18:38:00.008+01:002009-02-09T15:51:52.966+01:00A sobering thought on the civility that society holds so dear<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioM1VFAa2AF_Cutq1U1wwSm0W5EKt-zuE2KcqzWvWhIk5_VidsPIqnBxixqQ4T08qzxqnvLaxx8GUZkCwGIiCBb5lUE0XAsxwq1SSojit-wR05HpSgdREV_EIh7wva_F1hi7qz/s1600-h/Fehr.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 300px; height: 225px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioM1VFAa2AF_Cutq1U1wwSm0W5EKt-zuE2KcqzWvWhIk5_VidsPIqnBxixqQ4T08qzxqnvLaxx8GUZkCwGIiCBb5lUE0XAsxwq1SSojit-wR05HpSgdREV_EIh7wva_F1hi7qz/s400/Fehr.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5300485144042791378" border="0" /></a><br />Balancing loyalty and competition is important if a group of individuals are to achieve their best in a creative and productive collaboration. Oxford sociologist <a href="http://www.jerryravetz.co.uk/">Jerome Ravetz</a> reviews a <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v457/n7230/full/457662a.html">new book</a> about scientific societies during the Enlightenment in this week's edition of Nature and reveals the subtle challenges involved in getting this balance right.<br /><br />Describing the delightful civility of the British Royal Society in the seventeenth century, the book's author Steven Shapin seems to have turned a blind eye on what Ravetz calls the dark side of this very fertile period of European research: Newton's dubious treatment of Gottfried Leibniz concerning Leibniz's contribution to the development of calculus.<br /><br />Ravetz reflects on the dark secrets that seem to characterize so many periods of intense innovation by considering the genteel world of the Quants in our banking system. The quiet confidence of this group of talented souls is contrasted with the violent collapse of their elaborate financial constructs during the <a href="http://wordupcommunications.blogspot.com/2007/11/if-you-are-interested-nassim-taleb.html">past 2 years</a>.<br /><br />I was reminded of a comment by another researcher of loyalty and competition, <a href="http://www.iew.uzh.ch/chairs/fehr/team/fehr.html">Ernst Fehr</a>. Fehr (pictured, centre) has devoted the best part of a decade to demonstrating the importance of loyalty and other forms of what he calls '<a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v454/n7208/full/nature07155.html">other regarding preferences</a>' for the successful functioning of modern society.<br /><br />Fehr's research presentations are music to my commune-attuned ears and sensibilities, but I am glad to have also heard him present the dark side of his position on group loyalties. On one occasion he calmly commented that "of course, the mafia also display a well developed sense of loyalty and other regarding preferences,".<br /><br />As Ravetz concludes in his reflection on the contribution of civil collegiality in the financial meltdown, "[it is] a sobering thought".Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25957534.post-49648337565296576582008-08-31T21:44:00.007+02:002009-06-03T08:20:23.898+02:00Self and other-regarding preferences throughout the life cycle<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6VubhWltVLUlPmSH_el_7mo4AuBgjYIwouTXnkK3MPX2Zza_v3mrv7DgBmupOTyzDi3ry_IqciIdLDA-NpGaPeB0C5aVJdaByGgR4JYsevIhofal3onwx-uSO2wjYwbnjScjE/s1600-h/fehr.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6VubhWltVLUlPmSH_el_7mo4AuBgjYIwouTXnkK3MPX2Zza_v3mrv7DgBmupOTyzDi3ry_IqciIdLDA-NpGaPeB0C5aVJdaByGgR4JYsevIhofal3onwx-uSO2wjYwbnjScjE/s400/fehr.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5240772706746427362" border="0" /></a>A new film, and a new paper in Nature this week pinpoint exactly when children develop a sense of consideration for others. The film, in addition, pinpoints the age, later in life, when this socially important behaviour appears to vanish entirely.<br /><br />First to the paper in Nature by researchers Fehr (photo, middle), Bernhard & Rockenbach. It shows that children as young as 8 years old demonstrate a complex set of egalitarian tendencies. Egalitarianism involves the distribution of resources in an equitable fashion between self and other, even when this distribution involves a personal cost.<br /><br />Many argue that this preference is the bedrock of human cooperation, so it is important to know when and how it evolves in us. We are not born with it. Three year olds have no discernible preference towards sharing and almost never share when sharing results in personal cost to themselves.<br /><br />The celebrated part of this paper is the meticulous care with which conclusions can be drawn about the precise nature of other regarding preferences. Using methods tailored for children that have been adapted from highly sophisticated experiments used to study adult behaviour, Fehr can easily distinguish human altruism from a host of distracting facsimiles, such as the tendency to be merely helpful. Helpfulness is observed in many kinds of animals.<br /><br />I wouldn't want to diminish this beautiful experimental work, but I happen to have just heard about a new Ben Kingsley film that seems to chart the age-related <span style="font-weight: bold;">decline</span> of other regarding behaviour with an equally impressive <span style="font-weight: bold;">accuracy</span> and <span style="font-weight: bold;">precision</span>.<br /><br />Elegy, featuring Ben Kingsley and Penélope Cruz, is a film adaptation of a Philip Roth novella about a Columbia literature professor having an affair with a student. Nicely framing behaviour across the human life span, the film examines self versus other preferences in young women and men in their mid 60s.<br /><br />The film looks terribly, terribly nauseating. But it seems to provide an elegant study of the disintegration of other regarding preferences during old age and the subsequent return of mental functioning that is characteristic of early childhood. And as a work of pure fiction, the storyline also portrays the generous other regarding tendencies of younger folks that choose to live with such men:<br /><br />Cruz dialog: "I didn't ask you what I was gonna do. I asked you what you wanted to do with me".<br /><br />Kingsley dialog: "I was in love with her, George. I have never felt like that ever in all my life."<br /><br />Cruz dialog: "I am happy".<br /><br />I'd seen enough by the end of the trailer, but I trawled around and found an illuminating Ben Kingsley Guardian interview by Brian Logan:<br /><br />"Very soon preconceptions of me, if there are any left, will be meaningless, because I'll be moving too fast,". [Kingsley] makes a karate action with his arms, to indicate how confused we'll all be. The child in him will be pleased at that.<br /><br />"Egalitarianism in young children" is published on page 1079 in the August 28th edition of Nature. Elegy is coming to a cinema near you.Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25957534.post-2791693953301709172008-04-13T15:00:00.005+02:002008-04-13T15:11:38.456+02:00Lights, Canberra, inaction<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBQ7tbAvqDtSq3U1YExMw9z3fbA-S291uwkbT_9_Ag7cp0RX-nVIjfx1kcXrwyykwOXfyO2hhTcHmcPZYQpzwEiv55S8f-lspB28O03mjUkSRcXui2k4vUjIjAW-jdhk5Oth_Z/s1600-h/lights.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBQ7tbAvqDtSq3U1YExMw9z3fbA-S291uwkbT_9_Ag7cp0RX-nVIjfx1kcXrwyykwOXfyO2hhTcHmcPZYQpzwEiv55S8f-lspB28O03mjUkSRcXui2k4vUjIjAW-jdhk5Oth_Z/s320/lights.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5188715026512568914" /></a><br />Earlier this month I read two very different policy announcements about innovation. The first came from the European Commission and declared hopes that 2009 would be the European Year of Innovation.<br /><br />The image of the light bulb comes from the official EU press release. Both the image and the sentiment surrounding the announcement speaks volumes about the top down notions held by the Commission about how to realize economic gains from Europe's rich and diverse research base. <br /><br />A prime example of this top down, and frankly <a href="http://cordis.europa.eu/search/index.cfm?fuseaction=news.document&N_RCN=28491">wishful, thinking</a> is the European Institute of Technology (<a href="http://ec.europa.eu/eit/">EIT</a>). Intended to rival the MIT as a centre for innovation and the commercialization of research, the EIT was officially launched on March 11th this year by the European Parliament.<br /><br />If the Commission's hopes are realized and 2009 is declared the European Year of Innovation, the EIT will doubtlessly take centre stage at the celebrations. The only problem is that no one seems willing to <a href="http://wordupcommunications.blogspot.com/2006/11/filling-gap-between-rd-and.html">come to the party</a>.<br /><br />The Commission expects universities and companies to fund a lion's share of the EIT's ambitious development costs. Yet the EIT concept has received what can only be described as scorn from academia, research policy groups such as the <a href="http://www.esf.org/">European Science Foundation</a> and Industry.<br /><br />Few predict that the initiative will result in any measurable degree of action.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Canberra<br /></span>The second announcement on innovation came from what I would call a thinking person's academic policy think tank, the <a href="http://www.go8.edu.au/">Group of Eight</a> based in Canberra, Australia.<br /><br />The announcement describes how Australian spending on basic research in 2005 has fallen to a third of the levels observed at the beginning of the 1990s.<br /><br />As Go8 chairperson Alan Robson points out, changes in the way research is funded has created a situation in which "the winners are losers". <br /><br />Government funding to the top performing research universities fails to cover the total costs of research, effectively forcing the most successful universities to cross subsidize their research from international student fees.<br /><br />Robson also estimates that the funding shortfall has created a situation in which the top universities of Australia have deferred Aus$1.5 billion in university maintenance activities.<br /><br />Urging policy makers to think beyond the orthodoxy of "turning ideas into money", Robson says that his priority is towards "building relationships and better communication between universities and the communities they serve".<br /><br />The focus on innovation alone is failing to achieve this goal.Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25957534.post-53398091820272137282008-02-07T08:52:00.000+01:002008-02-09T22:36:41.842+01:00Banks as dangerous neighbourhoods<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiTjcfgq5K9CIKyqGEf5UyiCTDWRC2G3kXH061bFzjRrqWR_igv8j8vIxPEUat5qXlkEDiks1IW2J7GgKW39xNr2Dy5NBRjL_fKRf0s0TXntrjHs0NWyaBukgABUBQqvAnoz63/s1600-h/exposure.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiTjcfgq5K9CIKyqGEf5UyiCTDWRC2G3kXH061bFzjRrqWR_igv8j8vIxPEUat5qXlkEDiks1IW2J7GgKW39xNr2Dy5NBRjL_fKRf0s0TXntrjHs0NWyaBukgABUBQqvAnoz63/s320/exposure.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5165097492261581858" /></a><br />Tom Keene <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/tvradio/podcast/ontheeconomy.html">interviews</a> Nassim Taleb about the deficiencies of Value at Risk models by explaining that empirical models cannot predict Jerome Kerviel's 5 Billion euro loss at SocGen on the basis of existing data, for example Nick Leeson's 860 Million loss at Barings.<br /><br />The progression can only be explained by evoking nonlinear processes, says Taleb. Taleb suggests that the nonlinearity can be explained by the trend towards concentration in the banking industry (fewer banks, each larger in size) and by increased interdependencies between these banks (eg increased use of interbank loans).<br /><br />The solution? Smaller banks; and more of them.Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25957534.post-81651169672295437302008-01-16T22:39:00.001+01:002008-01-16T22:47:43.226+01:00Pandemic preparedness in the 21st century<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjrA4OoDE3qJp_pAHi739a2e9OU8_CTaPvo8ZO67xpXkg-w3v8k10h2hqFJc2x8dXNoGe0dbYWLrtZaEWrZX2ydZCgO0cmIawJZm3JW8C1JZn_bWNT-n5mtumRKghtBAR-45Je/s1600-h/SwissRe20080115.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjrA4OoDE3qJp_pAHi739a2e9OU8_CTaPvo8ZO67xpXkg-w3v8k10h2hqFJc2x8dXNoGe0dbYWLrtZaEWrZX2ydZCgO0cmIawJZm3JW8C1JZn_bWNT-n5mtumRKghtBAR-45Je/s320/SwissRe20080115.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5156194375334801090" /></a><br />I'm back from another cerebral treat at the Swiss Re Centre for Global Dialog, Rueschlikon, Switzerland.<br /><br /><br /><br /><a href="http://www.who.int/ethics/about/reis/en/">Andreas Reis</a>, WHO Department of Ethics and Human Rights, reviewed the 50+ year history of pandemic preparedness. Back in 1952 the WHO created the <a href="http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/surveillance/en/">Global Influenza Surveillance Network</a>, now comprising 118 centres in 89 countries. Reis described how GISN has been tirelessly detecting and cataloging flu strains ever since.<br /><br />The year 2000 saw the establishment of the <a href="http://www.who.int/csr/outbreaknetwork/en/">Global Outbreak Alert Response Network</a> (GOARN), which has already delivered vaccines and antivirals to more than 50 flu outbreaks in 40 countries.<br /><br />GOARN has also advanced the thinking behind the institutional response to pandemics. Reis talked about the "Titanic" principle of vaccine allocation, in which women and children are privileged in the response to a pandemic.<br /><br />He contrasted this with strategies in which health care professionals would instead get to jump to the front of the treatment queue. He emphasized that every strategy has its weakness.<br /> <br />Next came Basel county Chief Medical Officer <a href="http://www.gesundheitsdienste.bs.ch/">Anne Witschi</a> to describe the various phases of Switzerland's impressive outbreak response strategies. Witschi started with a description of Phase 3 of the response: the detection and isolation of a person infected with influenza A virus. <br /><br />Contact tracing roots out those who have been exposed to the virus. Isolation of all traced contacts completes the picture for phase 4 of the response.<br /><br />Phases 5 and 6 see mass vaccinations, - voluntary in Switzerland, and attempts to achieve social distancing. Social distancing refers to the prevention of any significant aggregation of people by shutting down schools, public transport and canceling all unnecessary workplace activity.<br /><br />Remember that the Swiss government has stockpiled 8M doses of the antiviral Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) in anticipation of pandemic. Enough for every human in Switzerland. <br /><br />Witschi described how Switzerland would manage the resulting traffic jams (no public transport) and boarder controls (people will make unpredictable moves to join family members and other loved ones). Much thought has gone into managing religious congregations.<br /><br />Finally, medical insurance expert Peter Miller presented Swiss Re's models for predicting the death toll of a full blown pandemic. What was interesting for me was to learn that the mortality rate has never exceeded about 3% of those infected.<br /><br />Miller was quick to point out how our preparedness has improved. A calamity of the scale of the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic has, according to his models, been reduced to a 1 in 3000 year event.<br /> <br />One serious difference between the H5N1 flu virus and other threatening viral nasties is the time lag between when one can infect others and when symptoms start to show. Someone infected with SARS is symptomatic from the moment they can pass on the disease.<br /><br />For H5N1, there is a 1 day time lag before the symptoms set in; a whole day when a victim can innocently infect others.<br /><br />During question time marking the end of the meeting, the man sitting next to me raised his hand and asked Anne Witschi some probing questions about the Swiss stockpile of Tamiflu. "Is there really enough medical equipment to deliver treatment for everyone?", he asked.<br /><br />"There's a full treatment course for every person in Switzerland," came the confident reply.<br /><br />"And the syringes?" he probed. "Are there enough syringes stockpiled to keep treating people?".<br /><br />Suddenly, just for a moment, the spell was broken. "There is still a small problem with the stock of syringes and needles," Witschi added sheepishly. The man ceased his questioning. <br /><br />Afterwards, I asked the man whether he had already known the answer to his question. "I'm working in this area," he said. And then said no more. <br /><br />Flu pandemics remain spooky, no matter how impressive 21st preparedness appears.Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25957534.post-64956749775648576262008-01-09T20:22:00.000+01:002008-01-09T20:24:47.939+01:00Links 2008.01.09: Hygiene, Social nets and EU-land media survey<a href="http://www.technologyreview.com/Biotech/19997/?nlid=793">Hygiene hypothesis links rising allergy rates with antiseptic modern life: new twist</a> <br />Study by Bengt Björkstén explores human gut microbiome - sum total of microbes in the gut, for clues as to why rich microbiome correlates robustly with reduced allergy.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.technologyreview.com/Infotech/19853/?nlid=791">Social-networking biggest in Japan<br /></a>Flattish growth in online membership around the 100M mark in the US is contrast with "rest of world" membership topping 400M and rising. <br /><br /><a href="http://www.euractiv.com/en/opinion/survey-citizens-unhappy-media-coverage-eu/article-169419">Citizens grumble about poor coverage of EU in media</a><br />Survey of all member states reveals that citizens feel EU news is insufficiently reported on TV (48% thought so), radio (46%) and print (36%), with generally positive attitudes about the quality of what media coverage there is.<br /><br />There was little consensus regarding Internet media coverage. This surprises me. I'm always shocked that what little internet news covered European achievements covers is badly: Ever noticed that the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7138979.stm">media announces a 1 year delay for Boeing Dreamliner</a> as 'confirming a plan' but announced the same news for Airbus A380 as 'troubled plane maker faces further delays'?Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25957534.post-32404819857916536512007-12-25T09:42:00.000+01:002007-12-25T09:46:13.770+01:00Falling investor confidence has and will cost us dearThis blog began 2007 with a comment on the fickle nature of investment in medical research.<br /><br />Citing a recent Tufts University study on the pharmaceutical industry, I commented that rising development costs could not be the only cause for the high attrition rate in drug development. I wanted to turn the direction of causation around and suggest that pharma faces a problem with investor confidence.<br /><br />After all, the increase in development cost is a long term trend in biomedicine, and the additional cost has been passed on to the consumer, i.e the sick. When an industry focuses so strongly on the risks of investment, is it not time to ask whether investment culture is itself in bad shape?<br /><br />By July, that same investment culture made headline news when it collectively switched off interbank loans and other forms of short term commercial lending.<br />The results were immediate and visible across much of the globe; the 2007 liquidity crises was born.<br /><br />The finger of blame pointed towards risky mortgages in the US. But problems in the mortgage sector cannot explain the ongoing calamity in the financial markets.<br />The numbers just don't support such a conclusion. So far, declared losses in the banking industry still fall short of the $300B mark that analysts estimate to be the losses for the sub prime mortgage sector.<br /><br />When and if such losses are realized, $300B just happens to be the amount that banks made as profit in 2006. These kinds of losses shouldn't be a problem. Industries don't normally face mass annihilation when they wipe out the previous year's profit margin in losses.<br /><br />To come full circle with my January blog, we can frame this situation as a problem in investor confidence and lending. Lenders are placing a high price on risk. Lending has dried up, and with that financial development comes the possibility of years of under-investment in all the industries upon which our prosperity depends.Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25957534.post-33432248042332313952007-11-19T20:25:00.001+01:002009-02-08T18:59:03.865+01:00If you are interested.... Nassim TalebVisit Tom Keen's Bloomberg November 16th podcast for a fast paced tour of 20th century banking and finance by Nassim Taleb. Author of <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp/1400063515">Black Swan: The impact of the highly improbable</a>, Taleb ruminates on why financial risk estimation remains such an imprecise science.<br /><br />"Physicists do prediction very well," Taleb explains. "Let's say, to 10 decimal places. Whereas Economists? Well they can't predict better than cab drivers".<br /><br />Why? Physics is empirical, or "bottom up". It pays, argues Taleb.<br /><br />Risk methods give a false sense of security. In Taleb's words: "Instead of teaching people 'This is what we don't know'. They teach 'what we think we know'. The illusion of understanding uncertainty"...Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25957534.post-10898473528907487022007-11-09T19:15:00.000+01:002007-11-12T20:58:58.364+01:00The short story on Carbon Capture & StorageOver the past two days, Swiss Re has <a href="http://www.ruschlikon.net/INTERNET/rschwebp.nsf/vwPagesIDKeyWebLu/CHZH-76ZUN8?OpenDocument">gathered together</a> a discordant group of experts on carbon capture and storage (CCS) at their spectacular Centre for Global Dialogue overlooking Lake Zurich.<br /><br />After a tip off, I had the luck to walk into a panel discussion rounding off the event and heard the best of it, re-stated by the top speakers, in 1.5 hours.<br /><br />You might have heard about this much toted miracle cure for global warming. Positioned as a solution good for the immediate term, current CCS technologies would greatly facilitate the elusive 80-90% reduction in CO2 emissions, - downing 7 gigatonnes of the stuff per year, required to shove the planet off its collision course with overheating.<br /><br />I learned about BP's toy CO2 burying project in Algeria, In Salah, showcased by a slick Iain Wright. Equally slick Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs professor Elizabeth Wilson outlined the miracle possibilities of CCS and, with help from Swiss Re Risk Management VP Christina Ulardic, the associated risk of the gas leaking out again and possibly killing people.<br /><br />But a deadpan delivery by Energy Research Centre Netherland's PhD student Heleen de Coninck more or less dispensed with the whole proposal. Coninck pointed out that pumping CO2 back underground was itself highly energy intensive (even with the existing well developed CCS technologies the so called energy penalty is 15-20%), and likewise highly unlikely given the disparity between the financial market value of carbon (very low, and falling) and the 25-40 euros per tonne needed to pay for CCS.<br /><br />So there you go. I hope I have summarized the 90 minutes I enjoyed at Swiss Re in 3 minutes of reading.<br /><br />Sorry you missed the excellent coffee, fruit juice and snacks.Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25957534.post-38695897691787745132007-10-28T19:58:00.000+01:002007-10-28T20:07:20.146+01:00Links: New science/culture organisation in ParisNature (October 18th) reviewed a new showcase for "art meets science" in Paris. Le Laboratoire opened on October 19th in 4, rue de Bouloi (75001 Paris) and has a gymnastic website to go with it. Visit www.lelaboratoirs.org and you'll see what I mean.Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25957534.post-66170353618716241752007-10-11T22:03:00.000+02:002007-10-12T20:22:33.319+02:00More alchemy from the political castePlease forgive my fascination for the easy formulas offered by politicians as they promise to transform research into economic prosperity.<br /><br />The European Commission is always the catalyst for this magic chemical reaction, and somewhere in the discussion the catalyst is named as none other than the <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/education/policies/educ/eit/index_en.html">European Institute of Technology</a> (EIT). <br /><br />Here's my latest alchemic discovery, published yesterday. Award winning MEP Dr. Chatzimarkakis asserts that "research is about turning money into knowledge and innovation is about turning knowledge into money". <br /><br />This elegant statement of reversible chemistry reminds me of remarks made earlier by EIT champion Jerzy Buzek, MEP. Buzek believes that "it is impossible to finance innovation directly". Something is needed to <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/education/policies/educ/eit/index_en.html">fill the gap</a> in between, he says.<br /><br />Like Buzek, Chatzimarkakis calls for innovation to overcome the strong equilibrium constraints that make Europe's research treasures inaccessible to economic exploitation. <br /><br />Using this logic, innovation becomes something money can't buy. Either you have it, or you don't. Or to follow these particular Parliamentarians to their logical conclusion, European researchers must innovate. On their own. Chop-chop!Tobe Che Benjamin Freemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16761800192569839089noreply@blogger.com0